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HighResCoralStress is a statistically downscaled thermal stress dataset at 0.01° / 1 km spatial resolution for 420,334 global coral reef pixels for historical (1985-2019) and future (2020-2100) time periods. The methodology for generating the HighResCoralStress dataset is detailed in the following PLOS Climate paper.

We provide eight thermal stress metrics which can be visualised and downloaded on the Data page. Thermal stress datasets can be visualised by selecting layers on the left-hand side of the map (e.g. metric, time period, emissions scenario).

The daily downscaled SST data are available from CEDA:

Dixon, A.M., Forster, P.M., Heron, S.F., Stoner, A.M.K, Beger, M. (2023). HighResCoralStress: Observed and statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections of daily sea surface temperature (SST) at 0.01°/1 km spatial resolution for the global coral reef area from 1985 to 2100. doi: 10.5285/295ee0ee59ee43439de38f83bb818b4f

Users of the HighResCoralStress data are required to cite:

Dixon, A.M, Forster, P.M., Heron, S.F., Stoner, A.M.K., Beger, M. (2021). Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems. PLOS Climate, 1(2), e0000004, doi: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004

If you would like to keep informed of updates to the HighResCoralStress dataset, please join our mailing list.

Thermal stress metrics

Thermal stress metrics available to download on the Data page:

Maximum monthly mean
Description
The long-term maximum monthly mean is calculated following the method by NOAA Coral Reef Watch. The monthly mean climatologies are calculated for each month from 1985-2012 and are then re-centred on the period 1985-1990 + 1993. The maximum of the 12 monthly climatologies is selected as the maximum monthly mean.
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019
Notes
The model MMMs are not available to view on the map but are available to download.
Number of days with Degree Heating Week (DHW) values > 4°C-weeks
Description
The sum of the number of days with DHW > 4°C-weeks. DHW is the sum of SST anomalies 1°C higher than the long-term maximum monthly mean (MMM) over a 12-week period calculated following the method by NOAA Coral Reef Watch.
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019, Projected: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100
Emissions scenario
SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, SSP5 8.5
Number of days with Degree Heating Week (DHW) values > 8°C-weeks
Description
The sum of the number of days with DHW > 8°C-weeks. DHW is the sum of SST anomalies 1°C higher than the long-term maximum monthly mean (MMM) over a 12-week period calculated following the method by NOAA Coral Reef Watch.
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019, Projected: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100
Emissions scenario
SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, SSP5 8.5
Probability of thermal stress events of Degree Heating Week (DHW) values > 4°C-weeks
Description
The number of events with DHW > 4°C-week divided by the total number of years. DHW is the sum of SST anomalies 1°C higher than the long-term maximum monthly mean (MMM) over a 12-week period calculated following the method by NOAA Coral Reef Watch.
Reference
Donner et al. (2009), Frieler et al. (2013), Schleussner et al. (2016), Dixon et al. (2022)
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019, Projected: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100
Emissions scenario
SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, SSP5 8.5
Probability of thermal stress events of Degree Heating Week (DHW) values > 8°C-weeks
Description
The number of events with DHW > 8°C-week divided by the total number of years. DHW is the sum of SST anomalies 1°C higher than the long-term maximum monthly mean (MMM) over a 12-week period calculated following the method by NOAA Coral Reef Watch.
Reference
Donner et al. (2009), Frieler et al. (2013), Schleussner et al. (2016), Dixon et al. (2022)
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019, Projected: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100
Emissions scenario
SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, SSP5 8.5
Seasonal SST variability (°C)
Description
Root mean square (RMS) of spectral energy in the seasonal band (0.5-1 year) calculated by transforming monthly SST into frequency bands using Fourier transform.
Reference
Langlais et al. (2017), Dixon et al. (2022)
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019
Inter-annual SST variability (°C)
Description
Root mean square (RMS) of spectral energy in the for the inter-annual band (3-8 year) calculated by transforming monthly SST into frequency bands using Fourier transform.
Reference
Langlais et al. (2017), Dixon et al. (2022)
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019
Trend in SST (°C/year)
Description
Slope for feasible generalised least squares model fit to annual mean SST with autocorrelation structure of 1. The p value (p_value) is also reported.
Reference
Chollet et al. (2022)
Time period
Observed: 1985-2019

Acknowledgements

The authors thank all the data providers whose datasets have fed into HighResCoralStress including the following observed datasets:

Source: Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Reference: Chin et al. (2017)

DOI: 10.5067/GHGMR-4FJ04

Source: ESA SST CCI

Reference: Merchant et al. (2019)

DOI: 10.5285/916b93aaf1474ce793171a33ca4c5026, 10.5285/373638ed9c434e78b521cbe01ace5ef7, 10.5285/2282b4aeb9f24bc3a1e0961e4d545427, 10.5285/42f7230ab55641cdac1bba84eabd446a, 10.5285/5db2099606b94e63879d841c87e654ae, 10.5285/7db4459605da4665b6ab9a7102fb4875, 10.5285/62c0f97b1eac4e0197a674870afe1ee6

Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch

Reference: NOAA Coral Reef Watch (2018)

Source: UNEP-WCMC, WorldFish Centre, WRI, TNC

Reference: UNEP-WCMC, WorldFish Centre, WRI, TNC, (2010)

DOI: 10.34892/t2wk-5t34

The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. The authors thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP6 and ESGF.

Historical, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 r1i1p1f1 simulations were used for all models except NESM3 (no SSP3-7.0 available at time of download) and GFDL-CM4 (no SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 available at time of download).

Insitute: CSIRO

Reference: Bi et al. (2020)

Insitute: CSIRO

Reference: Ziehn et al. (2020)

Insitute: BCC

Reference: Wu et al. (2019)

Insitute: CCCma

Reference: Swart et al. (2019)

Insitute: NCAR

Reference: Danabasoglu et al (2020)

Insitute: CMCC

Reference: Cherchi et al. (2019)

Insitute: EC-Earth-Consortium

Reference: Döscher et al. (2021)

Insitute: EC-Earth-Consortium

Reference: Wyser et al. (2020)

Insitute: NOAA-GFDL

Reference: Held et al. (2019)

Insitute: IPSL

Reference: Boucher et al. (2020)

Insitute: MRI

Reference: Yukimoto et al. (2019)

Insitute: NUIST

Reference: Cao et al. (2018)

Insitute: NCC

Reference: Seland et al. (2020)

Insitute: NCC

Reference: Seland et al. (2020)

Contact

If you have any enquiries, please contact Maria Beger at M.Beger@leeds.ac.uk.

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